DIRECT HIT: Latest Forecast Suggests Sandy Will Strike New Jersey
Central and Northern New Jersey would experience the "worst-case scenario," but the massive storm is expected to damage a wide area of the East Coast.
Hurricane Sandy is still packing 75 mph winds as a Category 1 storm on Saturday evening, and it could directly hit Monmouth and Ocean counties, weather forecasters say.
If so, it could be the first hurricane to directly hit the Jersey Shore in decades - maybe even a century. Other hurricanes, such as Irene in 2011, Belle in 1976 and Gloria in 1985, hugged the coast a bit before making a complete landfall in New Jersey.
The massive storm is located off the coast of the Carolinas and is traveling north at 13 mph over the open water of the Atlantic Ocean parallel to the East Coast.
Forecasters still expect the system to take a sharp left turn early on Monday morning and head toward the New Jersey coastline. At 2 p.m. Monday, while it's still offshore, the storm will have winds of 80 mph.
The National Hurricane Center said Saturday night that forecast models predicting the storm will eventually make landfall along the New Jersey coastline.
Meanwhile, the Miami-based agency said it would not lengthen the watch or warning area for the storm to locations north of areas currently under such warnings since Sandy may no longer be considered a tropical system once it reaches the Shore area.
Instead, official advisories from the storm would come in the form of high wind warnings and various marine warnings issued by local National Weather Service offices.
For Monmouth and Ocean Counties, there is a high wind watch through Tuesday afternoon. There is also a coastal flood warning for Monmouth and Ocean Counties until midnight Monday night and a flood watch through Tuesday afternoon.
In his evening forecasts, NBC40 meteorologist Dan Skeldon is suggesting that the storm could make landfall anywhere in New Jersey, somewhere in Ocean or Monmouth counties.
The strongest winds and greatest impact from a storm surge are predicted to be north of the storm. If Sandy lands north of Ocean City, central and northern New Jersey would see what Skeldon calls the "worst-case scenario." Southern New Jersey would see more rain (but still feel the effects of very strong winds).
Skeldon — who has earned a strong reputation predicting local conditions for the southern New Jersey shore — predicts winds of 60 to 80 mph on Monday in southern New Jersey.
He said the greatest impact will be during the two high tides on Monday. The first — at 8:27 a.m. at the Ninth Street Bridge on the bay side of Ocean City — would see the potentially strongest winds. The second — at 8:46 p.m. — could be mitigated by winds that may shift offshore and blow water back out to sea (if the storm does indeed make landfall north of Ocean City).
Skeldon predicted more "blowout tides" for Tuesday — with strong winds blowing from the west.
He warned that the massive storm is very dangerous and will be "a record-breaking storm for somebody," and he emphasized that slight shifts in the forecast or track of the storm could lead to dramatic changes in potential damage.
With waves of 30 to 40 feet over the open ocean and pounding surf closer to shore, beach erosion will be one of the guarantees of Sandy. Heavy rainfall of several inches will add fresh water to tidal floods of salt water.
The storm has led to a mandatory evacuation order for all of the barrier islands in New Jersey starting effective at 4 p.m. Sunday. Ocean City, Atlantic City and many other towns are included in the order — with all of the casino guests and employees required to comply.
The evacuation order, of course, forces the closing of barrier island public schools on Monday and Tuesday. But most mainland towns are also closing schools for those two days.
walt hays
9:00 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
Dan is the man when it comes to South Jersey weather- I really hope he's correct!
Ellen
10:45 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
I'm counting on him. I've got neighbors up there one of whom is having in-home hospice with a very short time to live and they are riding it out. I stayed for Irene and it turned out to be nothing and I'm hoping that this one will allow my friends safe harbor as well as all who decide to stay.
Squirt
11:07 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
This is scary! I pray it isnt as bad as expected
Christina Daniels
11:20 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
ok...nothing about the state of emergency just declared for Camden County? Love the Patch...but...need to check out Nixle.
Bryan Littel
11:23 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
Christina - the entire state's been under a state of emergency since this morning, which we reported when the governor declared.
Monk
6:07 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
So there.
debra
11:23 pm on Saturday, October 27, 2012
Will the storm surge reach matawan
BN
12:07 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
If its 22ft...yes.
Jersey Girl
12:05 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Keep the updates coming!
VAL SIMONELIE
12:16 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
IS ANY PART OF LONG BRANCH UNDER A MANDATORY EVACUATION?
trudy
6:12 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Val, if it isn't, it might be best to leave anyway. I haven't seen a complete list of towns under evac orders but just read this "Christie later tweeted a list of the 38 barrier island communities from Sandy Hook to Cape May where residents are subject to mandatory evacuations Sunday."
LB Resident
12:18 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
From another news site from LB OEM::
According to the latest information (Saturday, October 27, at 5:00pm) our area can expect winds from 50-65mph with gusts over 75mph. “Monday night around 9:00pm until Tuesday midday is the brunt of the storm,” said Dziuba. “The seas will be around 21-feet, that is two stories.” He also spoke about the tide conditions stating that normally there is about 3-to-5 hours between high tides which allows the water to recess. However, with this storm and the surges they only anticipate about 60 minutes between high tides.
What that means is significant flooding. Dziuba also stated that we will get about 8-10 inches of rain, added with the tides will create havoc in the area. “We are ordering a mandatory evacuation of our north section of town. Atlantic Avenue at Branchport Avenue all the way to the oceanfront. Police and firefighters will start to notify residents in that area on Sunday morning,” added Dziuba.
Stacey Biemiller Maisch
12:19 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Hoping this storm leaves us with more eye-rolling over the name "Frankenstorm," but less damage than "Octsnowber" last year. http://fromgrindtowhine.com/2012/10/26/frankenstorm/
Bill Oakley
7:25 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
octsnowber didn't amount to anything in ocean county
walt hays
12:27 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Well Dan, it's going to be a very close call! Not sure how to post a pic, so I'll post the link to the latest NOAA advisory cone:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031332.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
walt hays
12:31 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Woops, don't think that link works. Copy everything but the "cone" part before http and it should work. Maybe someone at the PATCH can fix the link?
patrick
1:00 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
wtf? the tv {weather channel }has the stand in mayor of point pleasant says you can stay but you need to sign paper {release of liability } to stay in town .. now at midnight states {weather channel } that we all move .. whats true ...??
walt hays
1:26 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
According to the APP if you live East of the RR tracks you have to go. Here's the link:
http://www.app.com/article/20121027/NJNEWS/310270086/?odyssey=tab%7Cmostpopular%7Ctext%7CSPORTS031003&nclick_check=1
kelly dubois
1:14 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Walmart will be open 24 hours untill this is over and they have half price generators. How are they open if you cant be on the road? I know for a fact because my sister works there and they had the meeting today.
Dev
1:36 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
That's some very dubious info on walmart. I would double check all that. First of all, walmart only carries one model generator and it's tiny and long long gone. Second, how could they charge half price? They're re not a charity. Quite the contrary actually. Thirdly, how could they stay open 24 hrs even if this is half as bad as they claim. Those people have families just like us all. I can't see a minimum wage employee braving floods and power outages away from home in the name of keeping walmart open. Nonsense. Maybe tonight they'll be open all night. That's a much more likely scenario. But then again, I'm in Toms River and the situation here could be much bleaker than where your sister works.
Bill Oakley
7:28 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
thats why their generaters are half price, no one is allowed on the road so they wont lose any money selling generaters at half price lol
marylou
6:02 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
Dev,Do you really think that Walmart give a crap about their employees and their families?And those minimum wage employees are probably afraid that if they don't com in,they'll be fired.Those stores will stay open if they think customers will show up.
Kate Bigam
1:22 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I saw on Twitter that the mandatory evac order has been rescinded for parts of the coast originally ordered out. Can you guys confirm whether this is true and, if so, what towns are no longer under order? Thanks!
walt hays
1:30 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I would suggest you contact your local police dept for the latest info- Things might be changing rapidly as this storm gets closer!
Bryan Littel
1:41 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
The state OEM rescinded the mandatory evacuation for Monmouth Beach, Sea Bright, Point Pleasant and Point Pleasant Beach.
Eleanor
9:15 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I am not on twitter and turned on the TV this morning and a weather guy on the beach at Point Pleasant said what sounded like the mandatory evacuation had been rescinded but it wasn't clear what area it was for - he made it sound like all of NJ but that cant be right. This is the problem with these things - we get a lot of orders but no real information. I still know people who are taking a wait-and-see and have no definite plans.
Jim
2:37 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Did someone verify that walmart rumor on genetators as I am still hunting for one?
Sam Neal
3:27 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
The Home Depot in Toms River supposedly still has generators and several Pep Boys stores are getting new shipments in the morning. If you go on Facebook and look up "Jersey Shore Hurricane News," people are endlessly posting updates regarding what store has what.
Myrt Gerba
8:50 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
We got one yesterday at Camping World on River Rd. Lakewood....they still had several left....store opens at 11 AM so I heard & there are 6 or 7 cars in line waiting for it to open. Good luck!
joaniepoo
9:43 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
i saw someone going out of shoprite last nite with a generator
PPNB
2:49 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
AM radio 1620 1630. Manasquan, Point Beach
don cheech
2:51 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
all wal-mart employees who dont swim to work will be terminated.
Local
6:10 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Ahhh Wal-Mart SoKindTo It's Employees! The small business killer that imports China Products.
john
5:04 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
National Weather Service
National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Sandy - Current Location:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031332.shtml?5-daynl?large#content
john
5:12 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Shelter info -- Google: new jersey shelters
Certain info on Channels 34, 35, and 36.
mjmjr
6:27 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
ALL ROOFERS,GET READY FOR WORK NEXT WEEK,THERE WILL BE WORK FINALLY.WHAT A DREAM STORM.
Bill Oakley
7:32 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
not my idea of a 'dream' storm, people can get killed you idiot
Toxic Avenger
6:50 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
friend of mine said his work..citgo refinery in nj is closing down around noon wonder how this storms going to affect gas prices :^\
Bill Oakley
7:33 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
they may go up for a while, but they'll be down to 3.135 by Christnas in jersey
alexis wood
7:02 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
When can we expect to see serious waves? I'm a local photographer and want to get great shots at the inlet!
Glenn Hayes
7:28 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
me too. i live right on the beach, got new camera all ready.
BN
11:34 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Both of you make sure you write your SS# on your arm.
Michael
8:05 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
How will this effect Manalapan area?
1stcav
9:10 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Glenn : Hope you got that "Waterproof " Model ... If not, put it in a baggie ....
Glenn Hayes
9:21 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
its water resistant pretty good, but not for underwater. I will bring a baggie along.
1stcav
11:52 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Keep camera body dry, just let the lens stick out and bring plenty of lens cloth to dry lens, your gonna need it ! good clicking !
Glenn Hayes
11:55 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
thanks 1stcav for the hint. Will give it a try.
Roz
9:12 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
What about East
Brunswick?
Frank
9:15 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
You can find generators, but have fun finding gas cans. Everyone is out of them.
1stcav
11:22 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
3 - 5 gal cans of gas & 3 Cars filled with a pump to empty all tanks if necessary...hope I don't need any of it, all stay safe and don't go out if you DON"T have too.....
Bella
11:54 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Someone is just getting ready for the storm and looking for a generator NOW???
dee dee dee dee
1stcav
11:56 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
What local radio stations will keep US up dated on the local news. Last storm WOBM played music, like we weren't even in a storm. Nero played the fiddle as Rome burned, very poor local coverage by a "JERSEY Shore " station !!!!!
Fred M
11:59 am on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Psalms 91. Check it out...Reading this Psalm provides protection from God..Disaster will not come near you...
Rich Nimphius
12:40 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
School Closings ?
Rich Nimphius
12:42 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
for Springfield township ?
Luxstar1
12:58 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Since power outages are inevitable having a long run time flashlight is a good idea.
Lowes has a 65 hour run time flashlight for under $5.00
http://www.instructables.com/id/Easy-Flashlight-Mod-Increases-Run-Time-36X/?allstep
I got mine in store. I also got one at Target.
More:
http://armageddononline.org/forums/threads/34318-Cheap-long-run-time-flashlights
Or go micro solar for under $50.00.
http://www.instructables.com/id/Uses-For-Dead-Car-Batteries-And-Sealed-Lead-Acid-B/?allstep
Kristie Hurst Sousa
1:03 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Im in California & my 22 yr old son is over in piscataway, NJ working. Im very worried. Can u provide me info that might assure me of his safety in piscataway?
Christopher
2:21 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
I recommend getting supplies at Lowe's over reading Psalms 91.
Fred M
12:21 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
I recommend God over Lowes..lol
john
3:04 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Governor Christie was on TV on several channels at 2PM, will be back later with another press conference so stand by because it's about the most specific info that you will get -- maybe it would be about 6PM (maybe) as he said they are getting national weather reports about every 4 hours. He said for preparedness to go to http://www.ready.gov/ if you need a list. Obama has called him and they are ready and so on. He said school closings will be up to local area. Emphasis is on safety, anything else is secondary.
.
5:21 pm on Sunday, October 28, 2012
Power was already out off of Fischer by Cattus Island. A transformer blew up. Luckily it only took JCP & L two hours to get power back up.
kelly dubois
12:31 am on Monday, October 29, 2012
You people are so ignorant. My sister works in toms river.that's why you are having such a hard time with things like which way is south. So I suggest you read a book or two when your power goes out. Also to " Suz" weren't you the woman who said "after this storm, waterfront houses would be a good buy" ? Nothing like cashing in on other peoples problems. Or as people like you say, "down with OPP"
Kaitlyn Anness
11:25 am on Monday, October 29, 2012
Please keep in mind that we are about to deal with what could be a deadly hurricane. While we love the conversation on Patch, let's keep it constructive and informative.
Deep snapper
2:09 am on Monday, October 29, 2012
Actually. I did see those generators n A worker did say they would be open 24 hours.
Tim Dixon
10:15 am on Monday, October 29, 2012
Take it from someone with experience down here in Hurricane Alley, have your gas grills operational or supplies for your charcoal grill. If power goes out for an extended period you'll want to cook everything in your freezer. We were out of power for 2 weeks after Hurricane Ivan in 2006 and organized community cookouts to cook and share all the food before it spoiled. Best of luck to all in my hometown!
Deep snapper
12:11 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
Hey situation. This is a natural 8.2 storm!
Black mamba
12:24 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
Anyone down for the jet ski race?? No one wants to man up? Loser buys winner the braccioli a la pomodoro at Spano's after the storm
Pamela Brown ♥
12:32 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 37.5N 71.5W winds 90 MPH
12H 39.0N 74.0W winds 90 MPH
24H 39.9N 76.7W winds 70 MPH
36H 40.4N 77.9W winds 50 MPH
48H 41.5N 77.2W winds 40 MPH
72H 44.5N 75.6W winds 35 MPH
Lacey Township: Oyster Creek New Jersey. Coordinates:
39°48′53″N 74°12′18″W / 39.81472°N 74.205°W
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/282056.shtml?
Teri Roberts
3:40 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
Anyone know about the homes on Amherst Dr.? Are they flooded?
Sean McCullen
4:57 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
In what town, Teri? Remember: A lot of these Hurricane Sandy stories are posted across most NJ sites, and the comments are shared on all of those sites.
Teri Roberts
5:24 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
That's in Bayville, NJ
Joan Hedden
10:53 pm on Monday, October 29, 2012
Wind is out of control in Lawrenceville. 70ft pine tree on top of my house and through garage wall and office window, other massive damage of huge trees down in back yard, deck railings smashed, bike shed demolished with bikes, car windshield smashed. Not much sleeping going on here. can't wait for the sun to come up and this stupid wind to stop! Enough!!
queenie Lanie
7:18 am on Wednesday, October 31, 2012
TO GLENN HAYES...IF YOU READ THIS, PLEASE LET US KNOW YOU ARE SAFE. My Mom is worried sick about your safety, and we are unsure of what happened, Please call her cell phone. Your friends in Kentucky....
UUUU
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