Community Corner

Above Average Hurricane Season Expected for 2013, Forecasters Say

Forecast slightly reduced from spring 2013 prediction, however.


Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have reiterated a forecast issued last spring that calls for an above-average 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

The latest forecast, issued Aug. 8, predicts 13 to 19 named storms, six to nine of which will become hurricanes. Out of those six to nine, three to five could become major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111 m.p.h.

An average season sees 12 named storms form, forecasters said.

"Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

Those conditions include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes, Bell said in a statement. Similar scenarios have boosted hurricane development during several seasons going back to 1995.

The latest predictions represent a slight pullback from the spring forecast, which called for 13 to 20 storms out of which seven to eleven would become hurricanes with three to six major storms.

The reason for the slightly-tempered forecast was blamed on the lack of a La Nina effect, a weather pattern that can reduce wind shear to tropical system and cause them to better develop.

Hurricane season peaks between mid-August through October. The season ends Nov. 30.


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